ATLGB
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Simulation: Packers win 6,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 1.8 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Falcons -2.0.
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,580 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Packers rank 32nd in penalty yards per game (73.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -4.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.2 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · GB n/a | ATL 36% · GB 64% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +179 · GB -179 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 25, ATL 21.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 11 and GB by 21.
Side by side
| ATL | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-3 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | 2026 Wk 3 | ATL 35 @ GB 14 | ATL | GB -4.5 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | GB 24 @ ATL 25 | ATL | ATL -3 |
| 2020-10-05 | 2020 Wk 4 | ATL 16 @ GB 30 | GB | GB -5 |
| 2018-12-09 | 2018 Wk 14 | ATL 20 @ GB 34 | GB | GB -4 |
| 2017-09-17 | 2017 Wk 2 | GB 23 @ ATL 34 | ATL | ATL -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away