ATLHOU
Atlanta Falcons @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 2.8 points stronger.
- Simulation: Texans win 6,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Falcons -2.0.
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Falcons 22nd (5.6%).
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,450 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Texans rank 31st in explosive plays allowed per game (4.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.9 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · HOU n/a | ATL 34% · HOU 66% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +190 · HOU -190 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 24, ATL 20.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 11 and HOU by 21.
Side by side
| ATL | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | HOU 19 @ ATL 21 | ATL | ATL -2.5 |
| 2019-10-06 | 2019 Wk 5 | ATL 32 @ HOU 53 | HOU | HOU -4 |
| 2015-10-04 | 2015 Wk 4 | HOU 21 @ ATL 48 | ATL | ATL -4 |
| 2011-12-04 | 2011 Wk 13 | ATL 10 @ HOU 17 | HOU | ATL -1 |
| 2007-09-30 | 2007 Wk 4 | HOU 16 @ ATL 26 | ATL | HOU -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away