ATLLAC
Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Falcons in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Falcons rank 19th (-0.3), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Falcons -2.0, Chargers -9.7.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Chargers 28th (2.7).
- Simulation: Falcons win 5,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 4,900 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Travel: Falcons cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 0.6 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 17 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | Pick'em |
| Total points | n/a | 46 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · LAC n/a | ATL 51% · LAC 49% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -104 · LAC +104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 23, ATL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 17 and LAC by 17.
Side by side
| ATL | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 0-6 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | LAC 17 @ ATL 13 | LAC | LAC -1 |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Wk 9 | LAC 20 @ ATL 17 | LAC | LAC -2.5 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | ATL 17 @ LAC 20 | LAC | LAC -1 |
| 2016-10-23 | 2016 Wk 7 | LAC 33 @ ATL 30 | LAC | ATL -4.5 |
| 2012-09-23 | 2012 Wk 3 | ATL 27 @ LAC 3 | ATL | LAC -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away