ATLLV
Atlanta Falcons @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Falcons -2.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Falcons in our ratings.
- Simulation: Falcons win 5,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Falcons about 1.1 points stronger.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 21st against it.
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Raiders win 4,700 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Travel: Falcons cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.9 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · LV n/a | ATL 53% · LV 47% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -113 · LV +113 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 24, ATL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 17 and LV by 16.
Side by side
| ATL | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-16 | 2024 Wk 15 | ATL 15 @ LV 9 | ATL | ATL -6.5 |
| 2020-11-29 | 2020 Wk 12 | LV 6 @ ATL 43 | ATL | LV -3.5 |
| 2016-09-18 | 2016 Wk 2 | ATL 35 @ LV 28 | ATL | LV -4 |
| 2012-10-14 | 2012 Wk 6 | LV 20 @ ATL 23 | ATL | ATL -10 |
| 2008-11-02 | 2008 Wk 9 | ATL 24 @ LV 0 | ATL | ATL -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away