ATLMIA
Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Falcons about 2.8 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Falcons in our ratings.
- Simulation: Falcons win 6,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Falcons rank 19th (-0.3), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Falcons passing game (25th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 3,640 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 13 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Dolphins rank 4th (47.7), Falcons 19th (60.7).
- Weak spot: Falcons rank 25th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.07).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.7 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · MIA n/a | ATL 64% · MIA 36% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -175 · MIA +175 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 20, ATL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 21 and MIA by 13.
Side by side
| ATL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-5 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | MIA 34 @ ATL 10 | MIA | ATL -7 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | ATL 30 @ MIA 28 | ATL | ATL -1.5 |
| 2017-10-15 | 2017 Wk 6 | MIA 20 @ ATL 17 | MIA | ATL -14 |
| 2013-09-22 | 2013 Wk 3 | ATL 23 @ MIA 27 | MIA | MIA -3 |
| 2009-09-13 | 2009 Wk 1 | MIA 7 @ ATL 19 | ATL | ATL -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away