ATLMIN
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 2.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Vikings win 6,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Falcons -2.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,340 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in offense, EPA per play (-0.09).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -5.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.3 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · MIN n/a | ATL 33% · MIN 67% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +200 · MIN -200 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 24, ATL 20.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 11 and MIN by 22.
Side by side
| ATL | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 6-0 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | ATL 22 @ MIN 6 | ATL | MIN -3.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | ATL 21 @ MIN 42 | MIN | MIN -6 |
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | MIN 31 @ ATL 28 | MIN | ATL -3.5 |
| 2020-10-18 | 2020 Wk 6 | ATL 40 @ MIN 23 | ATL | MIN -3.5 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | ATL 12 @ MIN 28 | MIN | MIN -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away