ATLNYJ
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Falcons about 1.2 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Falcons in our ratings.
- Simulation: Falcons win 5,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Jets 23rd (3.0).
- Strength: Falcons rank 3rd in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (-0.14).
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Jets win 4,730 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Falcons 22nd (5.6%).
- Turnover margin per game: Jets rank 11th (+0.4), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -0.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.5 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · NYJ n/a | ATL 53% · NYJ 47% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -111 · NYJ +111 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 23, ATL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 17 and NYJ by 16.
Side by side
| ATL | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 13 | ATL 24 @ NYJ 27 | NYJ | ATL -3 |
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | ATL 13 @ NYJ 8 | ATL | ATL -2 |
| 2021-10-10 | 2021 Wk 5 | NYJ 20 @ ATL 27 | ATL | ATL -3 |
| 2017-10-29 | 2017 Wk 8 | ATL 25 @ NYJ 20 | ATL | ATL -6.5 |
| 2013-10-07 | 2013 Wk 5 | NYJ 30 @ ATL 28 | NYJ | ATL -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away