ATLSF
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 2.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: 49ers win 7,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
- Travel: Falcons cross 3 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Falcons win 2,840 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: 49ers rank 30th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
- Field goal percentage: Falcons rank 20th (80.0%), 49ers 30th (66.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -6.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.6 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · SF n/a | ATL 28% · SF 72% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +252 · SF -252 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 27, ATL 21.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 9 and SF by 24.
Side by side
| ATL | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 6-1 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | SF 20 @ ATL 29 | ATL | SF -2.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | ATL 10 @ SF 20 | SF | SF -1.5 |
| 2022-10-16 | 2022 Wk 6 | SF 14 @ ATL 28 | ATL | SF -3.5 |
| 2021-12-19 | 2021 Wk 15 | ATL 13 @ SF 31 | SF | SF -9.5 |
| 2019-12-15 | 2019 Wk 15 | ATL 29 @ SF 22 | ATL | SF -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away