ATLTB
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
These teams play this week. See the game page for the betting line, injuries and rest.
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Falcons -2.0.
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 5,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Buccaneers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
- Turnover margin per game: Buccaneers rank 14th (+0.1), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 4,430 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 31st in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.20).
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 29th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · TB n/a | ATL 44% · TB 56% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +126 · TB -126 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 24, ATL 22.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 14 and TB by 18.
Side by side
| ATL | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | 2025 Wk 15 | ATL 29 @ TB 28 | ATL | TB -6 |
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | TB 23 @ ATL 20 | TB | TB -1.5 |
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | ATL 31 @ TB 26 | ATL | ATL -1.5 |
| 2024-10-03 | 2024 Wk 5 | TB 30 @ ATL 36 | ATL | ATL -2.5 |
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | TB 29 @ ATL 25 | TB | ATL -1.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away