ATLTEN
Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Falcons about 3.0 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Falcons in our ratings.
- Simulation: Falcons win 6,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Titans 31st (2.0).
- Point differential per game: Falcons rank 19th (-0.3), Titans 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 3,450 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 12 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Falcons 22nd (7.4%).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Falcons 22nd (5.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -4.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.3 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · TEN n/a | ATL 66% · TEN 34% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -190 · TEN +190 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 20, ATL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 21 and TEN by 12.
Side by side
| ATL | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-6 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | ATL 23 @ TEN 28 | TEN | ATL -2.5 |
| 2019-09-29 | 2019 Wk 4 | TEN 24 @ ATL 10 | TEN | ATL -3.5 |
| 2015-10-25 | 2015 Wk 7 | ATL 10 @ TEN 7 | ATL | ATL -5.5 |
| 2011-11-20 | 2011 Wk 11 | TEN 17 @ ATL 23 | ATL | ATL -6 |
| 2007-10-07 | 2007 Wk 5 | ATL 13 @ TEN 20 | TEN | TEN -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away