BALCAR
Baltimore Ravens @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 1.7 points stronger.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Simulation: Ravens win 5,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Panthers win 4,540 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Panthers passing game (16th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 16 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Ravens 13th (3.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -0.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.9 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · CAR n/a | BAL 55% · CAR 45% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL -120 · CAR +120 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 23, BAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 18 and CAR by 16.
Side by side
| BAL | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-20 | 2022 Wk 11 | CAR 3 @ BAL 13 | BAL | BAL -13 |
| 2018-10-28 | 2018 Wk 8 | BAL 21 @ CAR 36 | CAR | BAL -2.5 |
| 2014-09-28 | 2014 Wk 4 | CAR 10 @ BAL 38 | BAL | BAL -3.5 |
| 2010-11-21 | 2010 Wk 11 | BAL 37 @ CAR 13 | BAL | BAL -13 |
| 2006-10-15 | 2006 Wk 6 | CAR 23 @ BAL 21 | CAR | BAL -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away