BALCHI
Baltimore Ravens @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Simulation: Bears win 5,780 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Ravens 17th (+0.3).
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Upset odds: Ravens win 4,220 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 14 or more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 0.6 points stronger.
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.8 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · CHI n/a | BAL 42% · CHI 58% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL +137 · CHI -137 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 26, BAL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 14 and CHI by 20.
Side by side
| BAL | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | CHI 16 @ BAL 30 | BAL | BAL -2.5 |
| 2021-11-21 | 2021 Wk 11 | BAL 16 @ CHI 13 | BAL | BAL -5 |
| 2017-10-15 | 2017 Wk 6 | CHI 27 @ BAL 24 | CHI | BAL -5.5 |
| 2013-11-17 | 2013 Wk 11 | BAL 20 @ CHI 23 | CHI | CHI -4 |
| 2009-12-20 | 2009 Wk 15 | CHI 7 @ BAL 31 | BAL | BAL -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away