BALCIN
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Ravens -6.0.
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Simulation: Bengals win 6,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Ravens 17th (+0.3).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Bengals in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Ravens win 3,720 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 12 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Ravens rank 13th (3.7), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -4.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.1 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · CIN n/a | BAL 37% · CIN 63% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL +169 · CIN -169 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 27, BAL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 12 and CIN by 21.
Side by side
| BAL | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-2 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | CIN 35 @ BAL 13 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | BAL 24 @ CIN 0 | BAL | BAL -2.5 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025 Wk 13 | CIN 32 @ BAL 14 | CIN | BAL -7 |
| 2024-11-07 | 2024 Wk 10 | CIN 34 @ BAL 35 | BAL | BAL -6 |
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | BAL 41 @ CIN 38 | BAL | BAL -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away