BALCLE
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 4.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Ravens win 6,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.4 points to Ravens in our ratings.
- Strength: Ravens rank 6th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (+0.22).
- Strength: Ravens rank 8th in offense, EPA per play (+0.09).
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 3,860 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Ravens -6.0.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 14 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Ravens 16th (6.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.5 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · CLE n/a | BAL 61% · CLE 39% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL -159 · CLE +159 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 20, BAL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 20 and CLE by 14.
Side by side
| BAL | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | BAL 10 @ CLE 13 | CLE | BAL -3 |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | BAL 23 @ CLE 16 | BAL | BAL -7.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | CLE 17 @ BAL 41 | BAL | BAL -12.5 |
| 2025-01-04 | 2024 Wk 18 | CLE 10 @ BAL 35 | BAL | BAL -19.5 |
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | BAL 24 @ CLE 29 | CLE | BAL -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away