BALDAL
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 5,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Ravens 26th (8.2%).
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 12th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Ravens win 4,540 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 15 or more.
- Turnover margin per game: Ravens rank 14th (+0.1), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.3 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · DAL n/a | BAL 45% · DAL 55% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL +120 · DAL -120 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 27, BAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 15 and DAL by 18.
Side by side
| BAL | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | BAL 34 @ DAL 31 | BAL | BAL -3 |
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | BAL 28 @ DAL 25 | BAL | BAL -1.5 |
| 2020-12-08 | 2020 Wk 13 | DAL 17 @ BAL 34 | BAL | BAL -8.5 |
| 2016-11-20 | 2016 Wk 11 | BAL 17 @ DAL 27 | DAL | DAL -7 |
| 2012-10-14 | 2012 Wk 6 | DAL 29 @ BAL 31 | BAL | BAL -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away