BALDET
Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Ravens -6.0.
- Simulation: Lions win 5,940 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Ravens 17th (+0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Ravens win 4,060 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 13 or more.
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- History: Ravens won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -3.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.4 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · DET n/a | BAL 41% · DET 59% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL +146 · DET -146 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 27, BAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 13 and DET by 20.
Side by side
| BAL | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-2 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-22 | 2025 Wk 3 | DET 38 @ BAL 30 | DET | BAL -4.5 |
| 2023-10-22 | 2023 Wk 7 | DET 6 @ BAL 38 | BAL | BAL -3 |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 3 | BAL 19 @ DET 17 | BAL | BAL -7.5 |
| 2017-12-03 | 2017 Wk 13 | DET 20 @ BAL 44 | BAL | BAL -2.5 |
| 2013-12-16 | 2013 Wk 15 | BAL 18 @ DET 16 | BAL | DET -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away