BALIND
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 2.1 points stronger.
- Turnover margin per game: Ravens rank 14th (+0.1), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Simulation: Ravens win 5,630 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 15th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 4,370 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 12th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 15 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Ravens 21st (65.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -1.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.8 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · IND n/a | BAL 56% · IND 44% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL -129 · IND +129 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 23, BAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 18 and IND by 15.
Side by side
| BAL | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | BAL 41 @ IND 23 | BAL | BAL -3 |
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | IND 22 @ BAL 19 | IND | BAL -7.5 |
| 2021-10-11 | 2021 Wk 5 | IND 25 @ BAL 31 | BAL | BAL -7.5 |
| 2020-11-08 | 2020 Wk 9 | BAL 24 @ IND 10 | BAL | IND -1 |
| 2017-12-23 | 2017 Wk 16 | IND 16 @ BAL 23 | BAL | BAL -13.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away