BALJAX
Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Ravens 17th (+0.3).
- Simulation: Jaguars win 6,490 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jaguars +1.3, Ravens -6.0.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Ravens win 3,510 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Jaguars defense that ranks 13th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 11 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Ravens rank 16th (6.6%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.5 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · JAX n/a | BAL 35% · JAX 65% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL +185 · JAX -185 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 26, BAL 21.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 11 and JAX by 21.
Side by side
| BAL | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-2 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | 2023 Wk 15 | BAL 23 @ JAX 7 | BAL | BAL -4 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | BAL 27 @ JAX 28 | JAX | BAL -3.5 |
| 2020-12-20 | 2020 Wk 15 | JAX 14 @ BAL 40 | BAL | BAL -13 |
| 2017-09-24 | 2017 Wk 3 | BAL 7 @ JAX 44 | JAX | BAL -3 |
| 2016-09-25 | 2016 Wk 3 | BAL 19 @ JAX 17 | BAL | BAL -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away