BALLAC
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Point differential per game: Ravens rank 17th (+0.3), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 1.8 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Ravens in our ratings.
- Simulation: Ravens win 5,870 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Ravens rank 14th (+0.1), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 4,130 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Travel: Ravens cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Ravens rank 26th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.7 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · LAC n/a | BAL 59% · LAC 41% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL -142 · LAC +142 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 21, BAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 19 and LAC by 14.
Side by side
| BAL | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 0-6 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-25 | 2024 Wk 12 | BAL 30 @ LAC 23 | BAL | BAL -3 |
| 2023-11-26 | 2023 Wk 12 | BAL 20 @ LAC 10 | BAL | BAL -3 |
| 2021-10-17 | 2021 Wk 6 | LAC 6 @ BAL 34 | BAL | BAL -3 |
| 2019-01-06 | 2018 Wild Card | LAC 23 @ BAL 17 | LAC | BAL -3 |
| 2018-12-22 | 2018 Wk 16 | BAL 22 @ LAC 10 | BAL | LAC -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away