BALMIA
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 5.3 points stronger.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Simulation: Ravens win 6,940 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Ravens rank 17th (+0.3), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Ravens in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 3,060 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 10 or more.
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 12th against it.
- Penalty yards per game: Dolphins rank 4th (47.7), Ravens 21st (65.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.4 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · MIA n/a | BAL 69% · MIA 31% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL -226 · MIA +226 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 20, BAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 23 and MIA by 10.
Side by side
| BAL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 1-5 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-30 | 2025 Wk 9 | BAL 28 @ MIA 6 | BAL | BAL -7.5 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2023 Wk 17 | MIA 19 @ BAL 56 | BAL | BAL -3 |
| 2022-09-18 | 2022 Wk 2 | MIA 42 @ BAL 38 | MIA | BAL -3 |
| 2021-11-11 | 2021 Wk 10 | BAL 10 @ MIA 22 | MIA | BAL -8.5 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | BAL 59 @ MIA 10 | BAL | BAL -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away