BALSEA
Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Simulation: Seahawks win 6,940 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Ravens -6.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 1.6 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Ravens 17th (+0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Ravens win 3,060 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Seahawks rank 28th in running game, EPA per carry (-0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -5.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.2 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · SEA n/a | BAL 31% · SEA 69% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL +227 · SEA -227 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 24, BAL 20.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 10 and SEA by 23.
Side by side
| BAL | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-3 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | SEA 3 @ BAL 37 | BAL | BAL -6 |
| 2019-10-20 | 2019 Wk 7 | BAL 30 @ SEA 16 | BAL | SEA -3 |
| 2015-12-13 | 2015 Wk 14 | SEA 35 @ BAL 6 | SEA | SEA -10.5 |
| 2011-11-13 | 2011 Wk 10 | BAL 17 @ SEA 22 | SEA | BAL -7 |
| 2007-12-23 | 2007 Wk 16 | BAL 6 @ SEA 27 | SEA | SEA -12.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away