BALSF
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 6,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Ravens 17th (+0.3).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- Travel: Ravens cross 3 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Ravens win 3,550 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the 49ers defense that ranks 14th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 11 or more.
- Turnover margin per game: Ravens rank 14th (+0.1), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.2 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · SF n/a | BAL 36% · SF 64% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL +182 · SF -182 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 27, BAL 22.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 11 and SF by 22.
Side by side
| BAL | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 6-1 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-25 | 2023 Wk 16 | BAL 33 @ SF 19 | BAL | SF -6.5 |
| 2019-12-01 | 2019 Wk 13 | SF 17 @ BAL 20 | BAL | BAL -5.5 |
| 2015-10-18 | 2015 Wk 6 | BAL 20 @ SF 25 | SF | BAL -2.5 |
| 2013-02-03 | 2012 Super Bowl | BAL 34 @ SF 31 | BAL | SF -4.5 |
| 2011-11-24 | 2011 Wk 12 | SF 6 @ BAL 16 | BAL | BAL -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away