BALTB
Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 2.5 points stronger.
- Simulation: Ravens win 5,180 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Ravens rank 13th (3.7), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- History: Ravens won 5 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Strength: Ravens rank 6th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (+0.22).
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Ravens -6.0.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 4,820 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Buccaneers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 12th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 17 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.3 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · TB n/a | BAL 52% · TB 48% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL -108 · TB +108 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 23, BAL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 17 and TB by 17.
Side by side
| BAL | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-21 | 2024 Wk 7 | BAL 41 @ TB 31 | BAL | BAL -4.5 |
| 2022-10-27 | 2022 Wk 8 | BAL 27 @ TB 22 | BAL | TB -2 |
| 2018-12-16 | 2018 Wk 15 | TB 12 @ BAL 20 | BAL | BAL -8.5 |
| 2014-10-12 | 2014 Wk 6 | BAL 48 @ TB 17 | BAL | BAL -3.5 |
| 2010-11-28 | 2010 Wk 12 | TB 10 @ BAL 17 | BAL | BAL -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away