BUFDAL
Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 1.5 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 5,500 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Cowboys 21st (3.1).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 4,500 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Bills 17th (6.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 55.7 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · DAL n/a | BUF 55% · DAL 45% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -122 · DAL +122 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 27, BUF 28.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 18 and DAL by 15.
Side by side
| BUF | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | 2023 Wk 15 | DAL 10 @ BUF 31 | BUF | BUF -2 |
| 2019-11-28 | 2019 Wk 13 | BUF 26 @ DAL 15 | BUF | DAL -6.5 |
| 2015-12-27 | 2015 Wk 16 | DAL 6 @ BUF 16 | BUF | BUF -6.5 |
| 2011-11-13 | 2011 Wk 10 | BUF 7 @ DAL 44 | DAL | DAL -4.5 |
| 2007-10-08 | 2007 Wk 5 | DAL 25 @ BUF 24 | DAL | DAL -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away