BUFNO
Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 4.6 points stronger.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Simulation: Bills win 6,940 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Saints passing game (20th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,060 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Bills 29th (73.2).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -5.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 52 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · NO n/a | BUF 69% · NO 31% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -226 · NO +226 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 23, BUF 28.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 23 and NO by 11.
Side by side
| BUF | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | NO 19 @ BUF 31 | BUF | BUF -15.5 |
| 2021-11-25 | 2021 Wk 12 | BUF 31 @ NO 6 | BUF | BUF -7 |
| 2017-11-12 | 2017 Wk 10 | NO 47 @ BUF 10 | NO | NO -2 |
| 2013-10-27 | 2013 Wk 8 | BUF 17 @ NO 35 | NO | NO -10.5 |
| 2009-09-27 | 2009 Wk 3 | NO 27 @ BUF 7 | NO | NO -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away