BUFPIT
Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 2.7 points stronger.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Simulation: Bills win 5,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 9th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Steelers 13th (3.7).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Upset odds: Steelers win 4,290 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Bills +1.0.
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Home field: Steelers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.8 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · PIT n/a | BUF 57% · PIT 43% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -133 · PIT +133 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 24, BUF 25.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 18 and PIT by 15.
Side by side
| BUF | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 13 | BUF 26 @ PIT 7 | BUF | BUF -3 |
| 2024-01-15 | 2023 Wild Card | PIT 17 @ BUF 31 | BUF | BUF -10 |
| 2022-10-09 | 2022 Wk 5 | PIT 3 @ BUF 38 | BUF | BUF -14 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | PIT 23 @ BUF 16 | PIT | BUF -6.5 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | PIT 15 @ BUF 26 | BUF | BUF -2 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away