CARATL
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Falcons -2.0, Panthers -9.0.
- Simulation: Falcons win 5,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Panthers win 4,520 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 0.9 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 15 or more.
- History: Panthers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Field goal percentage: Panthers rank 1st (100.0%), Falcons 20th (80.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.3 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · ATL n/a | CAR 45% · ATL 55% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR +121 · ATL -121 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 24, CAR 23.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 15 and ATL by 18.
Side by side
| CAR | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | CAR 34 @ ATL 3 | CAR | CAR -2.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | CAR 30 @ ATL 27 | CAR | ATL -4.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | ATL 0 @ CAR 30 | CAR | ATL -5.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | CAR 44 @ ATL 38 | CAR | ATL -7.5 |
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | ATL 38 @ CAR 20 | ATL | ATL -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away