CARCHI
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
- Simulation: Bears win 6,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), Panthers 28th (4.0%).
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Upset odds: Panthers win 3,430 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 11 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Panthers rank 1st (100.0%), Bears 26th (73.3%).
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.1 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · CHI n/a | CAR 34% · CHI 66% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR +192 · CHI -192 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 27, CAR 22.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 11 and CHI by 21.
Side by side
| CAR | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | CHI 59 @ CAR 37 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | CAR 10 @ CHI 36 | CHI | CHI -4 |
| 2023-11-09 | 2023 Wk 10 | CAR 13 @ CHI 16 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2020-10-18 | 2020 Wk 6 | CHI 23 @ CAR 16 | CHI | CAR -2 |
| 2017-10-22 | 2017 Wk 7 | CAR 3 @ CHI 17 | CHI | CAR -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away