CARDEN
Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Panthers -9.0.
- Simulation: Broncos win 6,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 1.9 points stronger.
- Broncos running game (15th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Upset odds: Panthers win 3,290 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Panthers running game (18th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -5.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.7 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · DEN n/a | CAR 33% · DEN 67% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR +204 · DEN -204 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 25, CAR 20.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 11 and DEN by 22.
Side by side
| CAR | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | CAR 14 @ DEN 28 | DEN | DEN -13 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | DEN 10 @ CAR 23 | CAR | DEN -1 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | DEN 32 @ CAR 27 | DEN | CAR -4 |
| 2016-09-08 | 2016 Wk 1 | CAR 20 @ DEN 21 | DEN | CAR -3 |
| 2016-02-07 | 2015 Super Bowl | CAR 10 @ DEN 24 | DEN | CAR -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away