CARDET
Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Panthers -9.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 2.3 points stronger.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Simulation: Lions win 6,760 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Panthers passing game (16th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Panthers win 3,240 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -5.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.7 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · DET n/a | CAR 32% · DET 68% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR +208 · DET -208 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 29, CAR 24.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 11 and DET by 22.
Side by side
| CAR | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | DET 26 @ CAR 32 | CAR | DET -4.5 |
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | CAR 24 @ DET 42 | DET | DET -9.5 |
| 2022-12-24 | 2022 Wk 16 | DET 23 @ CAR 37 | CAR | DET -2.5 |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 11 | DET 0 @ CAR 20 | CAR | DET -3 |
| 2018-11-18 | 2018 Wk 11 | CAR 19 @ DET 20 | DET | CAR -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away