CARJAX
Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
- Simulation: Jaguars win 7,250 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 2.3 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Panthers win 2,750 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 9 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Panthers rank 1st (100.0%), Jaguars 16th (83.3%).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 24th in pass rush, sacks per dropback (4.5%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -7.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.8 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · JAX n/a | CAR 28% · JAX 72% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR +264 · JAX -264 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 27, CAR 20.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 9 and JAX by 24.
Side by side
| CAR | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | CAR 10 @ JAX 26 | JAX | JAX -4.5 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2023 Wk 17 | CAR 0 @ JAX 26 | JAX | JAX -3.5 |
| 2019-10-06 | 2019 Wk 5 | JAX 27 @ CAR 34 | CAR | CAR -3 |
| 2015-09-13 | 2015 Wk 1 | CAR 20 @ JAX 9 | CAR | CAR -3 |
| 2011-09-25 | 2011 Wk 3 | JAX 10 @ CAR 16 | CAR | CAR -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away