CARPIT
Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Panthers -9.0.
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Simulation: Steelers win 6,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Panthers win 3,810 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 13 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Steelers 13th (3.7).
- Field goal percentage: Panthers rank 1st (100.0%), Steelers 20th (80.0%).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.8 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · PIT n/a | CAR 38% · PIT 62% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR +162 · PIT -162 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 24, CAR 20.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 13 and PIT by 21.
Side by side
| CAR | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Wk 15 | PIT 24 @ CAR 16 | PIT | CAR -2.5 |
| 2018-11-08 | 2018 Wk 10 | CAR 21 @ PIT 52 | PIT | PIT -3.5 |
| 2014-09-21 | 2014 Wk 3 | PIT 37 @ CAR 19 | PIT | CAR -3 |
| 2010-12-23 | 2010 Wk 16 | CAR 3 @ PIT 27 | PIT | PIT -14 |
| 2006-12-17 | 2006 Wk 15 | PIT 37 @ CAR 3 | PIT | PIT -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away