CHIARI
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 3.5 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Simulation: Bears win 6,940 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,060 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 10 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Bears 19th (6.9%).
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -5.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 50 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · ARI n/a | CHI 69% · ARI 31% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI -227 · ARI +227 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 22, CHI 27.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 23 and ARI by 10.
Side by side
| CHI | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | CHI 9 @ ARI 29 | ARI | ARI -1.5 |
| 2023-12-24 | 2023 Wk 16 | ARI 16 @ CHI 27 | CHI | CHI -4.5 |
| 2021-12-05 | 2021 Wk 13 | ARI 33 @ CHI 22 | ARI | ARI -7.5 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | CHI 16 @ ARI 14 | CHI | CHI -6 |
| 2015-09-20 | 2015 Wk 2 | ARI 48 @ CHI 23 | ARI | ARI -2 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away