CHIBUF
Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 2.1 points stronger.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Simulation: Bills win 6,090 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Bears win 3,910 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
- Turnover margin per game: Bears rank 18th (-0.1), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.1 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · BUF n/a | CHI 39% · BUF 61% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +156 · BUF -156 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 28, CHI 24.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 13 and BUF by 21.
Side by side
| CHI | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-24 | 2022 Wk 16 | BUF 35 @ CHI 13 | BUF | BUF -8 |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Wk 9 | CHI 41 @ BUF 9 | CHI | CHI -10.5 |
| 2014-09-07 | 2014 Wk 1 | BUF 23 @ CHI 20 | BUF | CHI -7 |
| 2010-11-07 | 2010 Wk 9 | CHI 22 @ BUF 19 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2006-10-08 | 2006 Wk 5 | BUF 7 @ CHI 40 | CHI | CHI -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away