CHICIN
Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Bears -3.3.
- Simulation: Bengals win 5,910 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Home field: Bengals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 1.0 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Bears win 4,090 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 14 or more.
- History: Bears won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -3.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.3 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · CIN n/a | CHI 41% · CIN 59% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +144 · CIN -144 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 27, CHI 23.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 14 and CIN by 20.
Side by side
| CHI | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | CHI 47 @ CIN 42 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | CIN 17 @ CHI 20 | CHI | CHI -2 |
| 2017-12-10 | 2017 Wk 14 | CHI 33 @ CIN 7 | CHI | CIN -6 |
| 2013-09-08 | 2013 Wk 1 | CIN 21 @ CHI 24 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2009-10-25 | 2009 Wk 7 | CHI 10 @ CIN 45 | CIN | CHI -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away