CHIDET
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Bears -3.3.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Simulation: Lions win 5,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 1.2 points stronger.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Bears win 4,380 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 14 or more.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.6 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · DET n/a | CHI 44% · DET 56% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +128 · DET -128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 27, CHI 26.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 14 and DET by 19.
Side by side
| CHI | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | DET 19 @ CHI 16 | DET | CHI -3.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | CHI 21 @ DET 52 | DET | DET -6 |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | DET 34 @ CHI 17 | DET | DET -7 |
| 2024-11-28 | 2024 Wk 13 | CHI 20 @ DET 23 | DET | DET -9.5 |
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | DET 13 @ CHI 28 | CHI | DET -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away