CHIJAX
Chicago Bears @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Simulation: Jaguars win 6,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Jaguars rank 3rd (+0.8), Bears 18th (-0.1).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 1.2 points stronger.
- Home field: Jaguars play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Bears win 3,920 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 13 or more.
- History: Bears won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Jaguars 10th (3.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.6 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · JAX n/a | CHI 39% · JAX 61% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +155 · JAX -155 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 26, CHI 23.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 13 and JAX by 21.
Side by side
| CHI | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | JAX 16 @ CHI 35 | CHI | JAX -1.5 |
| 2020-12-27 | 2020 Wk 16 | CHI 41 @ JAX 17 | CHI | CHI -9.5 |
| 2016-10-16 | 2016 Wk 6 | JAX 17 @ CHI 16 | JAX | CHI -2.5 |
| 2012-10-07 | 2012 Wk 5 | CHI 41 @ JAX 3 | CHI | CHI -6 |
| 2008-12-07 | 2008 Wk 14 | JAX 10 @ CHI 23 | CHI | CHI -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away