CHIMIA
Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 4.7 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Simulation: Bears win 7,240 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,760 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 10 or more.
- History: Dolphins won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -6.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.6 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · MIA n/a | CHI 72% · MIA 28% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI -262 · MIA +262 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 20, CHI 27.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 24 and MIA by 10.
Side by side
| CHI | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 1-5 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Wk 9 | MIA 35 @ CHI 32 | MIA | MIA -4 |
| 2018-10-14 | 2018 Wk 6 | CHI 28 @ MIA 31 | MIA | CHI -7.5 |
| 2014-10-19 | 2014 Wk 7 | MIA 27 @ CHI 14 | MIA | CHI -3 |
| 2010-11-18 | 2010 Wk 11 | CHI 16 @ MIA 0 | CHI | MIA -2.5 |
| 2006-11-05 | 2006 Wk 9 | MIA 31 @ CHI 13 | MIA | CHI -13 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away