CHINYJ
Chicago Bears @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 3.2 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Simulation: Bears win 6,440 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Jets 21st (-1.9).
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Upset odds: Jets win 3,560 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 12 or more.
- Turnover margin per game: Jets rank 11th (+0.4), Bears 18th (-0.1).
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -4 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.3 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · NYJ n/a | CHI 64% · NYJ 36% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI -181 · NYJ +181 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 21, CHI 24.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 21 and NYJ by 12.
Side by side
| CHI | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | NYJ 12 @ CHI 23 | CHI | CHI -3.5 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | CHI 10 @ NYJ 31 | NYJ | NYJ -8.5 |
| 2018-10-28 | 2018 Wk 8 | NYJ 10 @ CHI 24 | CHI | CHI -8.5 |
| 2014-09-22 | 2014 Wk 3 | CHI 27 @ NYJ 19 | CHI | NYJ -1.5 |
| 2010-12-26 | 2010 Wk 16 | NYJ 34 @ CHI 38 | CHI | CHI -1.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away