CHITEN
Chicago Bears @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 4.9 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Simulation: Bears win 7,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Titans win 2,550 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 8 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Bears 19th (6.9%).
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -7.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.1 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · TEN n/a | CHI 74% · TEN 26% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI -292 · TEN +292 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 18.5, CHI 26.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 24 and TEN by 8.
Side by side
| CHI | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 1-6 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | TEN 17 @ CHI 24 | CHI | CHI -4 |
| 2020-11-08 | 2020 Wk 9 | CHI 17 @ TEN 24 | TEN | TEN -6.5 |
| 2016-11-27 | 2016 Wk 12 | TEN 27 @ CHI 21 | TEN | TEN -6.5 |
| 2012-11-04 | 2012 Wk 9 | CHI 51 @ TEN 20 | CHI | CHI -4.5 |
| 2008-11-09 | 2008 Wk 10 | TEN 21 @ CHI 14 | TEN | TEN -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away