CINATL
Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 3.0 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Falcons -2.0.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Simulation: Bengals win 6,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,880 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 13 or more.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -3 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.5 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · ATL n/a | CIN 61% · ATL 39% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN -158 · ATL +158 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 23, CIN 26.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 20 and ATL by 13.
Side by side
| CIN | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-23 | 2022 Wk 7 | ATL 17 @ CIN 35 | CIN | CIN -6.5 |
| 2018-09-30 | 2018 Wk 4 | CIN 37 @ ATL 36 | CIN | ATL -3.5 |
| 2014-09-14 | 2014 Wk 2 | ATL 10 @ CIN 24 | CIN | CIN -5.5 |
| 2010-10-24 | 2010 Wk 7 | CIN 32 @ ATL 39 | ATL | ATL -3.5 |
| 2006-10-29 | 2006 Wk 8 | ATL 29 @ CIN 27 | ATL | CIN -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away