CINJAX
Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Simulation: Jaguars win 5,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Jaguars play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Jaguars rank 10th (3.8), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Jaguars running game (9th in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
- Strength: Jaguars rank 1st in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (-0.16).
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Bengals win 4,340 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Jaguars +1.3.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bengals rank 2nd (9.4%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Jaguars defense that ranks 13th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 49 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · JAX n/a | CIN 43% · JAX 57% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN +130 · JAX -130 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 25, CIN 23.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 15 and JAX by 19.
Side by side
| CIN | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | JAX 22 @ CIN 17 | JAX | CIN -2.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | JAX 27 @ CIN 31 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
| 2023-12-04 | 2023 Wk 13 | CIN 34 @ JAX 31 | CIN | JAX -10 |
| 2021-09-30 | 2021 Wk 4 | JAX 21 @ CIN 24 | CIN | CIN -7.5 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | JAX 25 @ CIN 33 | CIN | CIN -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away