CINKC
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Simulation: Chiefs win 5,340 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Chiefs play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Chiefs rank 10th (3.8), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 0.6 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Bengals win 4,660 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bengals rank 2nd (9.4%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Chiefs +0.7.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 14 or more.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Bengals in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.9 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · KC n/a | CIN 47% · KC 53% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN +115 · KC -115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 24, CIN 23.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 14 and KC by 18.
Side by side
| CIN | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | CIN 25 @ KC 26 | KC | KC -6.5 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2023 Wk 17 | CIN 17 @ KC 25 | KC | KC -7.5 |
| 2023-01-29 | 2022 Conf. title | CIN 20 @ KC 23 | KC | KC -2 |
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Wk 13 | KC 24 @ CIN 27 | CIN | KC -2.5 |
| 2022-01-30 | 2021 Conf. title | CIN 27 @ KC 24 | CIN | KC -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away