CINMIA
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 5.8 points stronger.
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Simulation: Bengals win 7,770 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,230 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -8.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.9 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · MIA n/a | CIN 78% · MIA 22% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN -348 · MIA +348 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 19, CIN 27.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 26 and MIA by 7.
Side by side
| CIN | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 1-5 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | CIN 31 @ MIA 24 | CIN | CIN -7 |
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | CIN 45 @ MIA 21 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
| 2022-09-29 | 2022 Wk 4 | MIA 15 @ CIN 27 | CIN | CIN -4 |
| 2020-12-06 | 2020 Wk 13 | CIN 7 @ MIA 19 | MIA | MIA -10.5 |
| 2019-12-22 | 2019 Wk 16 | CIN 35 @ MIA 38 | MIA | CIN -1.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away