CINWAS
Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 4.1 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Commanders -7.7.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Simulation: Bengals win 7,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Commanders win 2,890 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 10 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Commanders rank 16th (3.7), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -6.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.6 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · WAS n/a | CIN 71% · WAS 29% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN -245 · WAS +245 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 21, CIN 27.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 24 and WAS by 10.
Side by side
| CIN | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-23 | 2024 Wk 3 | WAS 38 @ CIN 33 | WAS | CIN -7.5 |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 11 | CIN 9 @ WAS 20 | WAS | WAS -2 |
| 2016-10-30 | 2016 Wk 8 | WAS 27 @ CIN 27 | Tie | CIN -3 |
| 2012-09-23 | 2012 Wk 3 | CIN 38 @ WAS 31 | CIN | WAS -3 |
| 2008-12-14 | 2008 Wk 15 | WAS 13 @ CIN 20 | CIN | WAS -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away