CLECHI
Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
73% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 73% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 3.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bears win 7,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 2,690 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
- Field goal percentage: Browns rank 14th (87.5%), Bears 26th (73.3%).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.7 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · CHI n/a | CLE 27% · CHI 73% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +271 · CHI -271 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 26, CLE 17.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 8 and CHI by 24.
Side by side
| CLE | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | CLE 3 @ CHI 31 | CHI | CHI -7.5 |
| 2023-12-17 | 2023 Wk 15 | CHI 17 @ CLE 20 | CLE | CLE -3 |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 3 | CHI 6 @ CLE 26 | CLE | CLE -7.5 |
| 2017-12-24 | 2017 Wk 16 | CLE 3 @ CHI 20 | CHI | CHI -5.5 |
| 2013-12-15 | 2013 Wk 15 | CHI 38 @ CLE 31 | CHI | CLE -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away