CLECIN
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
77% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 77% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 4.5 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bengals win 7,700 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Browns +0.3.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 2,300 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -8.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.1 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · CIN n/a | CLE 23% · CIN 77% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +335 · CIN -335 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 27, CLE 17.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 7 and CIN by 26.
Side by side
| CLE | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | CLE 20 @ CIN 18 | CLE | CIN -9.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | CIN 17 @ CLE 16 | CIN | CIN -5.5 |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | CLE 6 @ CIN 24 | CIN | CIN -10 |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | CIN 21 @ CLE 14 | CIN | CIN -5.5 |
| 2024-01-07 | 2023 Wk 18 | CLE 14 @ CIN 31 | CIN | CIN -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away