CLEDEN
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 4.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Broncos win 7,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Browns +0.3.
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Broncos rank 6th (4.0%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 2,580 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Browns running game (21st in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Browns rank 17th (3.6), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -7.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.3 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · DEN n/a | CLE 26% · DEN 74% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +288 · DEN -288 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 24, CLE 17.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 8 and DEN by 24.
Side by side
| CLE | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-02 | 2024 Wk 13 | CLE 32 @ DEN 41 | DEN | DEN -6.5 |
| 2023-11-26 | 2023 Wk 12 | CLE 12 @ DEN 29 | DEN | DEN -1.5 |
| 2021-10-21 | 2021 Wk 7 | DEN 14 @ CLE 17 | CLE | CLE -2 |
| 2019-11-03 | 2019 Wk 9 | CLE 19 @ DEN 24 | DEN | CLE -4 |
| 2018-12-15 | 2018 Wk 15 | CLE 17 @ DEN 16 | CLE | DEN -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away