CLEGB
Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 3.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Packers win 7,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Packers rank 7th (4.3%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Packers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Browns win 2,810 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Packers rank 32nd in penalty yards per game (73.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -6.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.8 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · GB n/a | CLE 28% · GB 72% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +256 · GB -256 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 24, CLE 17.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 8 and GB by 24.
Side by side
| CLE | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-3 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | GB 10 @ CLE 13 | CLE | GB -8.5 |
| 2021-12-25 | 2021 Wk 16 | CLE 22 @ GB 24 | GB | GB -7.5 |
| 2017-12-10 | 2017 Wk 14 | GB 27 @ CLE 21 | GB | GB -2.5 |
| 2013-10-20 | 2013 Wk 7 | CLE 13 @ GB 31 | GB | GB -7.5 |
| 2009-10-25 | 2009 Wk 7 | GB 31 @ CLE 3 | GB | GB -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away