CLEJAX
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
79% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 79% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 4.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 7,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Home field: Jaguars play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Upset odds: Browns win 2,120 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 24th in pass rush, sacks per dropback (4.5%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -9.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.4 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · JAX n/a | CLE 21% · JAX 79% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +372 · JAX -372 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 26, CLE 17.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 6 and JAX by 27.
Side by side
| CLE | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | CLE 10 @ JAX 34 | JAX | JAX -8.5 |
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | CLE 18 @ JAX 13 | CLE | JAX -3 |
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | JAX 27 @ CLE 31 | CLE | CLE -2.5 |
| 2020-11-29 | 2020 Wk 12 | CLE 27 @ JAX 25 | CLE | CLE -7.5 |
| 2017-11-19 | 2017 Wk 11 | JAX 19 @ CLE 7 | JAX | JAX -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away